TMCV: CV Recovery & 20% Upside Play (34 chars)

Tata Motors Ltd, formerly TML Commercial Vehicles, is the focus of this company overview slide. It highlights a market cap of ₹1.32 lakh crore (as of 12 Dec 2025) and the post-demerger ticker TMCV (Oct 2025).

Company Overview

• Tata Motors Ltd (formerly TML Commercial Vehicles)
• Market cap: ₹1.32 lakh crore (12 Dec 2025)
• Listed ticker: TMCV (post-demerger, Oct 2025)

The slide "Portfolio & Segmental Mix FY25" reports FY25 revenue of ₹35.1K Cr across all segments and an EBITDA margin of 11.2%, reflecting healthy profitability. It identifies 5 core segments: HCV, ILCV, SCV & Pickups, Carriers, and Exports.

Portfolio & Segmental Mix FY25

• ₹35.1K Cr: FY25 Revenue

Across all segments

• 11.2%: EBITDA Margin

Healthy profitability level

• 5: Core Segments

HCV, ILCV, SCV & Pickups, Carriers, Exports Source: TMCV FY25 Results

The slide summarizes Q1 & Q2 FY26 performance with key Q2FY26 stats. Revenue hit ₹18.4K Cr (+6.6% YoY), EBITDA margin reached 12.2% (profitability expansion), and wholesales totaled 96.8K units (+12% YoY).

Q1 & Q2FY26 Performance

• ₹18.4K Cr: Q2FY26 Revenue

+6.6% YoY Growth

• 12.2%: Q2FY26 EBITDA Margin

Profitability Expansion

• 96.8K Units: Q2FY26 Wholesales

+12% YoY Increase

The slide timelines monthly wholesales from Oct-Nov 2024 (41,200-43,500 units, steady baseline with seasonal bus and export lifts) to Oct-Nov 2025 (50,800-52,100 units, +20-23% YoY). Growth is fueled by surging HCV fleet demand, sustained LCV sales, and expanding exports.

Monthly Sales Trends

Oct 2024: Wholesales: 41,200 units Prior year baseline with steady HCV and LCV demand. Nov 2024: Wholesales: 43,500 units Seasonal lift from buses and initial exports growth. Oct 2025: Wholesales: 50,800 units (+23% YoY) HCV surges 30% amid strong fleet replacement demand. Nov 2025: Wholesales: 52,100 units (+20% YoY) LCV and exports drive sustained monthly momentum.

Source: Tata Motors Wholesales Data

The slide outlines key industry drivers: aging fleets over 9 years spurring replacement demand, rising freight rates enhancing operator profitability, stabilizing diesel prices bolstering margins, and improving fleet utilization during recovery. These trends are visualized in data-driven charts.

Industry Drivers

• Fleet age >9 years drives replacement demand
• Freight rates rising, boosting operator profitability
• Diesel prices stabilizing, supporting margins
• Fleet utilization improving amid recovery
• Key trends shown in data-driven charts

The scrappage policy drives ~10% CAGR demand growth. Tata Motors leads with 47% MHCV market share and 35% overall CV share.

Scrappage Policy & Market Share

• ~10%: Demand Growth CAGR

Driven by scrappage policy

• 47%: MHCV Market Share

Tata Motors leadership position

• 35%: Overall CV Share

Strong competitive positioning

The IVECO Acquisition slide table shows projected FY25 P&L figures in €Bn with margins. Revenue is €14.8Bn (100.0%), EBITDA €1.7Bn (11.5%), and PBT €0.8Bn (5.4%).

IVECO Acquisition

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The Valuation Summary slide lists key multiples: 13.5x India CV EV/EBITDA for the core business, 2.5x IVECO acquisition valuation, and 1x Tata Capital P/B for the financial arm. It targets a share price of ₹430, implying 20% upside potential.

Valuation Summary

• 13.5x: India CV EV/EBITDA

Core business multiple

• 2.5x: IVECO Multiple

Acquisition valuation

• 1x: Tata Capital P/B

Financial arm multiple

• ₹430: Target Price

20% upside potential Source: Dec 2025

The shareholding pattern as of Sep 2025 features promoters with the largest stake at 46.4%, followed by domestic institutional investors (DIIs) at 25%. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) hold 18%, while retail investors account for 10.6%.

Shareholding Pattern (Sep 2025)

• 46.4%: Promoter Holding

Core stable ownership stake

• 18%: FII Ownership

Foreign institutional investors

• 25%: DII Stake

Domestic institutional holding

• 10.6%: Retail Investors

Individual shareholder base Source: Company Filings

The "Management Commentary" slide features a quote on the commercial vehicle cycle gaining momentum, with freight rates rising and fleet utilization improving to boost replacement demand and financing growth. It is attributed to Umesh Revankar, MD of Shriram Finance, and Ravi Menon, MD of Cholamandalam Finance.

Management Commentary

> The commercial vehicle cycle is gaining momentum, with freight rates on an uptrend and fleet asset utilization improving significantly. This supports stronger replacement demand and financing growth ahead.

— Umesh Revankar, MD, Shriram Finance & Ravi Menon, MD, Cholamandalam Finance

Source: Shriram Finance & Cholamandalam Finance Q2FY26 Earnings Calls

The slide presents an investment thesis for TMCV, highlighting CV-cycle recovery, accelerating profitability, IVECO tech upgrades for leadership, and strong FCF with RoCE over 25%. It closes with a strong buy recommendation at current levels, targeting ₹430 for 20% upside.

Investment Thesis

• CV-cycle recovery underway

• Profitability expansion accelerating
• IVECO tech upgrade for leadership
• Strong FCF generation & RoCE >25%

Closing: TMCV: Invest Now for Superior Returns!

Call-to-Action: Buy TMCV at current levels – Target ₹430 (20% upside)

Why Invest in TMCV Now!

Source: Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles Investor Presentation, Dec 2025