Generated from prompt:
Create a 6–8 slide presentation titled 'AGRHYMET’s Current Drought Early Warning System and Future Plans for Drought Impact-Based Forecasting (IbF)'. Include: 1) Introduction to AGRHYMET, 2) Drought context in the Sahel, 3) Overview of current drought early warning system, 4) Data sources and technologies used, 5) Current system limitations, 6) Concept of Impact-Based Forecasting (IbF), 7) AGRHYMET’s roadmap for IbF implementation, and 8) Expected benefits and conclusion.
Overview of AGRHYMET's Sahel drought early warning system, data/tech used, limitations (hazard-focused), IbF concept, implementation timeline, and benefits like better decisions & resilience. (162 cha
This title slide presents AGRHYMET's current Drought Early Warning System and future plans for Impact-Based Forecasting (IbF). The subtitle welcomes viewers to the presentation on AGRHYMET's drought monitoring and enhancements.
Welcome to the presentation on AGRHYMET's drought monitoring and future enhancements.
This agenda slide outlines a presentation on drought early warning in the Sahel, starting with AGRHYMET introduction and regional challenges. It covers the current early warning system overview, data sources and limitations, Impact-Based Forecasting concept, and implementation roadmap with benefits and conclusion.
Overview of AGRHYMET and drought challenges in the Sahel.
Summary of existing drought EWS operations and features.
Key data inputs, tech used, and current system constraints.
Introduction to the IbF approach for better forecasting.
Implementation plan, expected benefits, and closing remarks.
AGRHYMET is the Regional Centre for Agrometeorology & Water Management (CILSS), based in Niamey, Niger. It serves 9 Sahel countries, focusing on food security and drought early warning since 1974.
The Drought Context in the Sahel slide states that over 300 million people are affected by drought in the region. It highlights more than 50 years of recurrent droughts since the 1970s, a major 2011 famine, and three key impacts: crops, migration, and malnutrition.
Drought impacts Sahel region
Droughts since 1970s
Severe crisis example
Crops, migration, malnutrition
The Current Drought Early Warning System (EWS) monitors rainfall, NDVI vegetation, and soil moisture while providing seasonal forecasts and 10-day bulletins. It issues threshold-based alerts for meteorological and agricultural droughts, disseminated via radio, web, and stakeholders.
The slide features a table titled "Data Sources & Technologies" listing key sources and their associated technologies. It includes satellites (e.g., MSG) for rainfall estimates and NDVI, models (CHIRPS, ECMWF) for forecasts, ground stations for validation, and GIS tools for mapping.
{ "headers": [ "Source", "Tech" ], "rows": [ [ "Satellites (e.g., MSG)", "Rainfall est., NDVI" ], [ "Models (CHIRPS, ECMWF)", "Forecasts" ], [ "Ground stations", "Validation" ], [ "GIS tools", "Mapping" ] ] }
The "Current System Limitations" slide lists key challenges, including a hazard-focused approach that excludes impacts and limited sector-specific data. It also notes weak user feedback loops, real-time data access issues, and national service capacity gaps.
Source: AGRHYMET presentation context
Impact-Based Forecasting (IbF) is based on the equation Hazard → Exposure → Vulnerability = Impact, quantifying risks from weather events, affected populations/assets, and susceptibility. It shifts from meteorological predictions to multi-hazard, user-driven forecasts of impacts on agriculture, water, and health for actionable decisions.
| Impact Equation | Key Shift in Forecasting |
|---|---|
| Hazard → Exposure → Vulnerability = Impact. This core formula underpins IbF by quantifying risks through interaction of weather events, affected populations/assets, and susceptibility factors. | IbF forecasts impacts on agriculture, water, and health for actionable decisions. Moves from meteorological predictions to multi-hazard, user-driven approaches tailored to stakeholder needs. |
AGRHYMET’s IbF Implementation Roadmap is a timeline outlining key phases from 2023 to 2026+. It begins with pilot assessments in 2023, capacity building in 2024, model integration in 2025, and culminates in operational bulletins and partnerships in 2026+.
2023: Pilot Assessments Launch pilot assessments to test IbF methodologies and gather initial data. 2024: Capacity Building Initiatives Conduct capacity building and develop impact chains for stakeholders. 2025: Model Integration Integrate forecasting models and develop IbF prototypes. 2026+: Operational Bulletins Roll out operational IbF bulletins and strengthen partnerships.
The slide outlines expected benefits such as better decisions and reduced losses, enhanced resilience in the Sahel, and stronger partnerships. It closes with thanks for attention and an invitation for Q&A.
- Better decisions, reduced losses
Thank you for your attention!
Q&A?
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